Nevermind the steroids. Forget about one of the most embarrassing moments in front of Congress any individual had ever displayed (McGwire’s refusal to answer questions about “the past” was almost better than Big Bill stating flatly that he “did not have sex with that woman”). Let’s look at the raw statistics and how they were accomplished. First, a caveat, though, as McGwire and Barry Bonds are now to be forever linked as players who were great at the start of their careers, took a dive that no one believed they could come back from and then all of the sudden became two of the three great home run hitters, again, in their mid to late thirties. Or, as the legendary Frank Robinson stated flatly last week- "Let's take Barry Bonds. You don't get better as you get older."
Back to your regularly scheduled article, McGwire’s case is very much a crux of what the Baseball Hall of Fame is about. As it is, by far, the hardest of the American sports Halls to get enshrined in, McGwire must now hope that the one thing he did well, actually great, is the one thing holding his case together. Well that, and the perceived notion that himself and Sammy Sosa saved the game of baseball (which is a short sighted, moronic notion). McGwire didn’t save baseball- baseball’s been around since the Civil War and it wasn’t going anywhere no matter how peeved the general public was with the incessant work stoppages that hurt the sport’s credibility. Well, that credibility that McGwire worked so hard to bring back to the game (and no, I’m not abstaining Sammy Sosa from this, but he’s not on the ballot this year) is all but lost as the public and the media are left to wonder how badly the wool was pulled over their eyes that one great summer.
Due to everything that has come down the pike over the last 6-7 years, Baseball is taking on the persona of Track & Field or Cycling, corrupt sports that can no longer be taken seriously because no one knows who is cheating and who isn’t. For a sport so hell-bent on numbers and statistics and history, nothing could be more damaging to the sport. So, was this a case of baseball biting off its’ nose to spite its’ face? It is certainly taking on that feel, isn’t it? For all of the butts in the seats, McGwire broke one of baseball’s most hallowed records, which Barry Bonds subsequently broke a few years later. And now Bonds is right on Hank Aaron’s heels as the greatest home run hitter in Major League history. Both men are on the frontlines of this scandal.
Let’s look at how McGwire stacks up as a Hall of Famer through two different Hall specific credentials. First, let’s look at baseball-reference.com’s list of qualifications for the Hall of Fame, as they use four criteria to determine if a player stacks up with the rest of the Hall.
Black Ink: Batting - 36 (41) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 110 (189) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 42.0 (126) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 169.5 (60) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses
(For descriptions of these four categories, click http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/leader_glossary.shtml#black_ink)
As you can see, McGwire is above the Hall threshold in two of the four categories. But, his HOF standards in batting don’t measure up to the average Hall of Famer and seeing as his defense reminded exactly no one of Keith Hernandez, that part of his work surely isn’t going to help. On the flip side, his HOF Monitor is certainly above the level for induction.
Now, let’s look at McGwire through the prism of two of Bill James ways of determining if a player is a Hall of Famer or not. First, these are McGwire’s most similar players for his career:
1. Jim Thome (833)
2. Jose Canseco (807)
3. Carlos Delgado (788)
4. Harmon Killebrew (782) *
5. Willie McCovey (767) *
6. Manny Ramirez (753)
7. Juan Gonzalez (738)
8. Norm Cash (737)
9. Jason Giambi (737)
10. Dave Kingman (730)
Notice that only two players on his top ten most comparable players are inducted to Cooperstown. While McCovey and Killebrew were both excellent players, they are not upper-tier Hall of Famers. There is no Aaron, Mays, etc. to compare him to. Out of the other eight players on the list, five are never going to the Hall (Cash, Kingman, Canseco, Gonzalez, Giambi), one is a longshot (Delgado), one should make it at some point (Thome) and one is almost a surefire pick (Manny Ramirez). This doesn’t say much about McGwire’s case, either. If anything it says that McGwire was a superior power threat with not much else in his arsenal. The fact that Thome and Canseco are his most comparable is also a big hit to McGwire’s case. If McCovey and Killebrew had been up there at the top, it would be different. One other note, even though McCovey was McGwire’s most comparable very early and very late in McGwire’s career, the most comparable players during the middle of his career were the likes of Cecil Fielder, Mark Teixiera, Nate Colbert and Richie Sexson. Not exactly murderers row, right?
Now, let’s take a look at The Keltner Test, a test devised by Bill James in regards to Ken Keltner, an Indians player from the late 1930’s to the early 1950’s who James based this set of questions on to see if Keltner was a Hall of Famer or not.
THE KELTNER LIST:
Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
Yes and no. McGwire was among a club of the most feared sluggers in the game, but he was never head and shoulders above the rest of the Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey Jr, Sammy Sosa, Jeff Bagwell group. During his runs at Maris’ record, he might have been the most feared hitter in baseball, but certainly not its’ best player due to him being so one-dimensional.
Was he the best player on his team?
On the Cardinals, yes. On the A’s, Jose Canseco was just as big of a superstar, if not more.
Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
Again, he was not markedly better than either Bagwell or Thomas. Since both played in the same leagues when McGwire did, the answer is no, but not an exact no as he was just as good (and if you argued better, I could be persuaded.)
Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Here’s where McGwire runs into some problems. He was hurt a lot for his career and while he did have impacts on pennant races, it was both early and late in his career. During the middle of his years, when he should have been a dominating force capable of giving his team a chance all of the time, he did not. Now, some of that had to do with injuries and some of that had to do with the A’s deciding to tank their franchise because they didn’t want to spend money, but McGwire certainly didn’t put the ‘team on his back.’
Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?
Apparently not. McGwire didn’t play through injuries and as soon as the injuries started to creep up after his assaults on all things Maris, he shut it down quicker than anyone I can remember. One year he was dominating, the next he was swatting infield flies to second base and calling it quits.
Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
A definite no. Ron Santo holds that title and won’t relinquish it until he’s finally inducted. I think Jim Rice is also ahead of McGwire.
Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?
No. If you look at his comparables above, only two of his top ten are Hall of Famers and only one of the active players, Manny Ramirez, will be a surefire induction. Now, as far as home runs go, he certainly has met the criteria.
Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
As seen above, that’s a mixed bag. Some of his numbers demand inclusion while some scream “Stop!” This question is a wash as it pertains to McGwire.
Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
Actually, this one is a wash too. McGwire played in a pitcher’s park while with the A’s and in a hitters park when with the Cardinals. So, without the Andro, his park factors are irrelevant.
Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?
Maybe. Depends on what you consider to be the best. If you are looking at hitting, he probably is. If you’re looking at overall production from the position, Don Mattingly and Keith Hernandez are both interesting cases due to their gloves and high batting averages and on base percentages. It’s really what you like in this question. I’ll give McGwire the nod, though, over the other two based on his sheer dominance in stretches of his career.
How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
Surprisingly to some, McGwire never won an MVP. He was in the top 10 five times, finishing 2nd in 1998 and 5th a year later. In all, he made an appearance in the top 25 ten times.
How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?
12 seasons-1987,1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1995,1996,1997, 1998,1999,2000. Yes and this may be one of McGwire’s real strong points about why he should be enshrined.
If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
Certainly, but it didn’t happen as much as you would expect from McGwire. The A’s teams he played on while younger were loaded with talent, so you can’t say he took those teams to the playoffs. The Cardinals teams, though, were his to take to the playoffs and he did that in 2000 and 2001. Between 1992 and 2000, though, McGwire never made the playoffs.
What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
He had a huge impact on baseball history, but almost none of it is favorable. Even his home run record was tainted by questions of cheating. So, while he had an influence on the game, it wasn’t a positive one.
Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
Not to be too harsh here, but the answer would have been a resounding yes…until 1998 when his credibility took a major hit followed by successive hits that culminated in his appearance before Congress.
There are two points that are mandatory when discussing McGwire and the Hall of Fame. First, he was a non-factor in the playoffs. McGwire sported a .217 batting average in the playoffs with 5 home runs in 126 at bats and never once homered more than once in an entire series. For a guy of this stature, those are not even decent numbers. Second, the number 1,626, as in the number of hits McGwire accumulated over his career. That total is very low and would end up, I think, as the lowest total for a ballplayer ever in Cooperstown. Also, his RBI total only ranks 60th All Time and with such a large amount of home runs, you would expect better.
With all of the news that has been coming out about the voters not putting him on their ballots, McGwire is going to have to worry about getting the 5% to stay on the ballot, not the necessary numbers for induction.
In my mind, and if I had a vote it wouldn’t be for McGwire. While the home runs are great, he just didn’t do enough other things to warrant a selection. Maybe if he had decided not to leave that bottle of Andro sitting in his locker, we might not be having this discussion. But, with everything that went on with McGwire, the numbers are not great enough to gloss over the other issues and say he is a sure-fire Hall of Famer. Actually, it might be the exact opposite case.
