Sometime last week, the Grizzlies did something that we’ve been waiting on for almost six months- they secured themselves the worst record in the NBA. And don’t for a second believe it was as easy as it sounds. First, they had to run out the string better than the Milwaukee Bucks, who at last report were starting a group that consisted of three players from Our Lady Of The Good People But Bad Athletics Varsity High School team in Wabash, Wisconsin, they had to navigate the losses batter than the Edward John Smith led, err Doc Rivers led, Boston Celtics. (By the way, when I Googled ‘NBA Lottery Odds’, the first thing that came up was the interview below with the Celts Basketball Operations Analyst. When people remember back in ten years about how truly bad this Celtics run has been under Rivers and Ainge, that should definitely be one of the bullet points at or near the top of the page. ‘Screw the League office, if anyone knows how the Lottery works it’s the Celtics front office.’ Sadly, Bill Simmons is hitting his shins with a tire iron right now.) But hey, Grizz fans, we got want we wanted. In this draft year- The Loaded Two, as we might call them- it’s better to be the Grizzlies than it is, say, the Bobcats. Nothing like losing night in and night out and having two of the best prospects in years coming out and having little chance of getting them. Especially if you’re a new franchise looking for one of those franchise guys to turn that money you’ve been saving into something tangible. Well, whatever Charlotte, we beat you to the punch. Then again, we threw in the towel much earlier than the rest, which led to us, of course, getting better, while the Bucks and Celtics started sinking quicker than Louis Anderson in a vat of drawn butter. So, here we stand, with a 46.48% chance of getting one of The Coveted Two and a 53.52% chance of getting someone we don’t really want. Well, maybe.
When I write that the rest of the draft is filled with guys that we don’t really want, it’s not due to the fact that these guys aren’t fantastic players, which some of them are behind Oden and Durant, it’s that the Grizzlies are looking for one important aspect of a player or players this summer- their marketability. It’s highly paramount to this franchise to get people in the seats and to start to repopulate the fan base that hasn’t really left, but certainly is eyeing the door. In essence, our party hosts just threw on a Menudo tune during the middle of the party to see just who is committed enough to stick it out. And that’s the fans. You can do this when you have a player with the immediate monetary impact of an Oden or a Durant. Suddenly, you’re no longer the Memphis Grizzlies, you’re Greg Oden’s Memphis Grizzlies. You move up in the SportsCenter highlight package. People in every city, if you draft Durant, are wearing your team colors. Strangely enough, when I tried to put an amount of money that Oden or Durant meant to this franchise, over the life of their fist four-year rookie contract, I put the number at making your franchise worth an extra $50 Million dollars. My father echoed the same figure and my Uncle was right there too (neither of which did I share the number I had in my head until after they gave me an answer. Moderately interesting.). All of the sudden, Heisley’s asking price doesn’t look so far-fetched. Iverson would have added that and more, I’d bet, over the life of his contract and, well, I need to get back on the highway. I’ve directed the Iverson/ Paul Pierce train for far too long and it’s not coming into this station.
The Grizz need a splash. A Daryl Hannah Splash. (Shoot me now.) And they’re poised to make it. There is everything they need in this year’s draft class to help find that Free Agent if the Grizz lose out on the #1 or #2 overall pick. Remember, 46.48%<53.52%- it’s basic math. If the Grizz land themselves the #3 overall pick (64.2% chance), there are so many options they have it might just be a good thing. You could try to argue them to me and I’d at least listen, bit it certainly would not take the sting out of missing on the top two.
The real question, after marketability of the player, is how does he fit into the Grizzlies system. Of course that begs ‘What is the Grizzlies system?’ Which brings up ‘Which players should be here to play that system?’ And a cascade of questions after that that ends somewhere around ‘Should I have Dyer’s or Blues City after the game?’ The most glaring need is for a center. They get killed on the glass, the shot blocking is not imposing and the team defense (that zone they played was awful) has to be able to channel the ball into a big guy who can block shots. After they take either Roy Hibbert or Spencer Hawes, the Grizzlies need to focus on their roster. It’s either that or trade the #3 pick and move down or go after a star in a sign and trade with the pick. It’s certainly not the death-knell that people are depicting out to be, though. The Grizzlies, like they did some three years ago, are going to have to make creative deals and value roster construction to form a team more than they did over the past few years where the team was good, but with flaws attached.
The Grizzlies either:
1. Draft Greg Oden #1 overall and don’t change any of the roster. Depending on where the cap is set, the Grizzlies should be around $47-$49 Million with the current roster sans the expiring deals. They would have the room to bring in one veteran and a young player to fill the roster. With Kyle Lowry coming back, this is instantly a playoff (#7/#8 seed) contender.
2. Draft Kevin Durant #2 overall and the roster needs to change dramatically. You can’t have Pau playing center with Durant at one forward and Warrick or Gay at the other. Teams will be drooling lining up to play the Grizzlies every night. Three rail-thin guys at three positions that need at least some bulk would have opposing offenses laying more balls in than if the Grizz fielded five Stromile Swift’s. Now that’s saying something.
3. Draft Roy Hibbert/ Spencer Hawes with the #3 overall pick and little change to the roster. A center fills a lot of needs with this team. Big guys, above everything else, make everyone else’s job that much easier. Whether it is on the defensive end or bailing the offense out, all of the sudden this team would have people playing the right position and can be much more valuable. Pau can move back to power forward. Warrick can split time with Gasol and at the small forward. Brian Cardinal can take over Big Jake’s position and sleep on the bench. Everyone wins.
4. Trade the #3 pick in so many different scenarios, I’d need three seasons to figure them all out. Look, some people love Brandan Wright. Ditto with Al Horford. Someone will want that pick and trade above value for the chance to take it off the Grizzlies hands. This deal, though, is not contingent on getting a star player. More picks and a good veteran would be a great move.
5. Draft Jeff Green/ Corey Brewer with the pick with the intent to package them with Gasol for a package of a proven star (Chauncey Billups and some combination of picks and talent in a sign and trade) and some lesser talent and picks. Whether it’s fair or not, I don’t know how long this team can rely on Pau to be the face of the franchise let alone the sole offensive firepower.
6. Blow the whole thing up. The team has the requisite losses. It has the requisite roster in terms of a lot of young players that are easy to get off the books. They can identify the core they want to keep and everyone else is either going to be traded for about fifty cents on the dollar or bought out. I’m not fundamentally against this either if it means keeping the core of Gay, Warrick, Lowry, Alexander Johnson, the draft pick, and maybe Kinsey. That’s five or six players on a roster that will need to double.
But, before we all get too far ahead of ourselves, there are problems in the front office and the ownership that could turn out to be much more problematic than the talent. Jerry West and Michael Heisley have both made little overtures that if the Grizzlies get Durant or Oden all of the sudden, they might not be gone. That’s a very nice gesture by both- if we get screwed, I’m gone. If not, I’ll stay around and sign more Stoudamire/ Cardinal types to completely sabotage any good the draft pick has done. As this front office operation continues down this road, it’s becoming increasingly clear that until those people are gone, the status quo is going to stay. Heisley, and really who didn’t see this coming, is angling for something else- namely the Cubs. He wants to get rid of the franchise, even if it means handing it over the crazy ex-girlfriend who you dumped some four months ago only you just want to give her another shot because no one else is banging down your front door. You tell me what’s worse- Not having a girlfriend or having one that drives you up the freaking wall everyday for the sake of, um, companionship? I’ll take alone for $600, Alex.
And now the blood has been drained from this franchise. Very rarely do teams emerge from being the doormats of the league to becoming a playoff team and then back to the doormats to resurrect again. It takes a lot of time, especially in this NBA. Fortunately for the Grizz, they have two trump cards this summer to play with. If they can use them- a big IF- then all is kind of forgiven. If not, this road is going to get very bumpy, very fast. Oklahoma City and then Seattle will be chomping at the bit for thje franchise to relocate after the Memphis crowds roll out to the tune of 8,000 per night to start next season. People who are season ticket holders couldn’t give away front row seats to games this year. What do you think another year of this is going to do? But, again, with a little forethought and none of this ‘I might leave if we don’t get the right pick’ crap, the pick itself doesn’t matter as much as what you do with the pick that is not in the top two.
Reality shows that sometimes it’s not the pick you made, but the deal you got for the pick you didn’t make. In Grizzlies fans case, hopefully, we won’t have to know because the faith in this franchise to swing a mind-bending deal has got to be below the Mendoza line at this point. But, with Oden or Durant all could be masked, forgiven or both. That doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy, though, as this franchise still has many issues floating around that will affect the performance if not rectified.
Describing the Draft Lottery process by the people who know it best-
Celtics.com sat down on April 27,2006 with Celtics Basketball Operations Analyst Mike Zarren to explain exactly how the ping-pong balls work in the NBA Draft Lottery~
“Basically, 14 ping-pong balls, numbered one to 14, are placed in a bin. There are exactly 1,001 possible four-ball combinations when you have a set of fourteen. Each team in the lottery has been assigned a set number of combinations of any four of the balls, for a total of 1,000 combinations. (the 1,001st combination belongs to no team.) The number of different combinations assigned to each team depends on that team's record; teams tied at the end of the regular season split evenly the total combinations allotted to their two positions, with one team getting one more combination in the event the total is odd. Then, a team of independent accountants draws four balls out of the bin, and whichever team is assigned that combination gets the first pick in the draft; if it's the 1,001st combination, the balls are replaced and drawn again.
After the first pick is determined, the balls are replaced, and the process repeated. If the new combination belongs to the team that already won the first pick, the balls are replaced and drawn again. The next different team whose combination is chosen gets the second pick, and then the whole process is repeated again for the third pick. After those three picks are set, the remaining teams are set to pick in inverse order of their record, with ties being broken by a previous drawing. The accountants mark down who gets each pick, and place a card bearing each team's logo into an envelope bearing the number of that team's pick. The envelopes are then brought out on stage, where they're opened in front of a live TV audience.
NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Memphis 250 (# Combos)/ 25.00% (1st pick) /21.48% (2nd pick)/ 17.72% (3rd pick)/ 64.20% (any top 3 pick)
